The Rising Euros :

The Euro extended its rally against the dollar to another record high after poor jobs data and a repeat performance by the Feds Bernanke, who did little to offer any support to the dollar. The Euro gained a full 1 per cent against the greenback to hit an all time high of $1.5231. This is the third straight session in which the Euro has gained to record highs.

We have seen good data posted by Germany this morning as Retail Sales rose higher than expected in January. Retail sales rose 1.6% on the month. Be aware today, as its Friday under after the rise of the Euro, it may be under some pressure from the dollar and yen as a bit of profit taking may come into play before the weekend.

When to EXIT a Trade?

The best time to exit a trade is when the price crosses back down through all 3 EMA’s on the chart. Notice in the above example that the Dark Blue line—the actual price of USD/CHF on the 20th crossed back down all three indicators where I circled EXIT. If you held this position all week, you could have made a 275 pip profit.

With 1 lot traded on a standard account this would have been approximately $1780.00 in profits. With 2 lots--$3560! A mini account would have profited you $178 and $356 respectively.
If you profited 275 pips with EUR/USD or GBP/USD you would have made approximately $10 per pip, which you would have made $2750 with one lot and $5500 with 2 lots traded. Not bad for one week!

FOREX Fundamental Analysis

Most FOREX traders rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategy. This article will discuss fundamental analysis. The other common form of analysis is technical analysis. After reading this article you should have a better understanding of fundamental analysis and how to use it as part of your FOREX strategy.

Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, inflation and growth rates.

Fundamental analysis will provide you with an overview of currency movements and a broad picture of the economic conditions. Most traders then will combine their fundamental analysis with technical analysis to plot actual entrance and exit points as well as confirming the information provided by their fundamental analysis.

Just like most markets the FOREX market is controlled by supply and demand. Many economic factors can affect the supply and demand but the two most critical ones are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The over all strength of the economy is affected by changes in the GDP, trade balances and the amount of foreign investment.

There are many economic indicators released by government and academic sources. These indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but will sometimes be released weekly. These are pretty reliable measures of economic health and are closely followed by all traders.

There are many indicators that are released but some of the most important and commonly followed are : interest rates, international trade, CPI, durable goods orders, PPI, PMI and retail orders.

Interest Rates - can cause a currency to either strengthen or weaken depending on the direction of movement. In some cases high interest rates will attract foreign money, however high interest rates will frequently cause stock market investors to sell of their portfolios. They do this believing that the higher cost of borrowing money will adversely affect many companies. If enough investors sell of their holdings in can cause a downturn in the market and negatively affect the economy.

Which of these two affects will take place depends on many complex factors, but there is usually an agreement among economic observers as to how the current change in interest rates will affect the general economy and the price of the currency.

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